What is surprising is that at least Verizon — and presumably AT&T — are still talking to Google about joining Wallet. Of course, both Verizon and AT&T have to date shunned Google Wallet for Isis, which is prepping to come to market with an NFC payments product.
Verizon reportedly told Bloomberg that “we are continuing our commercial discussions with Google on this issue.” And while AT&T declined to comment, it is not a stretch to expect it to likewise engage in discussions with Google.
The reported numbers out of Google Wallet are not good: just 50,000 to 100,000 downloads. Adoption isn’t likely to be higher than 10%, by our estimates.
Strikingly, Google is now talking about sharing Wallet economics with Verizon and AT&T to convince the two largest wireless companies to embrace the payments product. What that means is Google was not sharing the economics to date — no wonder Verizon and AT&T told Google to bug off. Sadly, I don’t see Google buying its way out of this one. The low adoption has put Google into a disadvantageous position. Any deal with Verizon and AT&T will likely make Google Wallet a borderline financial success at best.