Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011 or the five-year period starting in early 2012. One measure of the probability of deflation for the 2012-17 period ticked down from 14 percent on September 5 to 12 percent on September 12. This probability has been trending down since peaking at 17 percent two months ago. The deflation probability for the 2011-16 period remained at 11 percent.
Original Post: http://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/dp/