Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011 or the five-year period starting in early 2012. One measure of the probability of deflation for the 2012-17 period ticked down from 12 percent on September 12 to 11 percent on September 19. (This probability has been trending down since peaking at 17 percent two months ago.) The deflation probability for the 2011-16 period inched down from 11 percent on September 12 to 10 percent on September 19.
Original Post: http://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/dp/